Lost internal support behind Trudeau resignation, political scientists say

With the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the Liberal Party continues to search for what comes next.

Jim Farney, professor at the Johnson Shoyoma Graduate School of Public Policy, said the Liberals found themselves in this situation after nearly a decade of rule as an old, tired and “worn out” government.

“It seems pretty clear that what happened — especially after the break with (Chrystia) Freeland — was that he didn’t have enough internal power left to control timing,” Farney said.

“He’d lost the support of the (federal) New Democrat Party in a serious way and so this is one of the very rare cases in Canadian history where somebody was forced out without even control over timing.”

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Trudeau requested Governor General Mary Simon to prorogue — or suspend parliament until March 24.

Assistant professor Daniel Westlake with the University of Saskatchewan’s Political Studies department said the first piece of legislation that will come forward then will be the budget, but it’s not certain that it would receive the necessary support.

Westlake said this could trigger an election.

He also said the mounting pressure to resign coming from Trudeau’s own party, made the decision seem almost inevitable in hindsight.

“By Monday, the Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic caucuses had all said that they wanted him to resign,” Westlake said. “And so it is hard for a party leader with that much opposition within their own party to remain in their position.

Westlake says it’s possible Trudeau’s resignation could have come even earlier if Canada operated under the political systems of Britain or Australia — saying it’s easier for MPs in those countries to get rid of a leader.

Farney said one of the challenges faced by the Liberals is the prospect of a short leadership race.

He said the party’s public image will bounce back a little bit following Trudeau’s resignation but not by a lot.

Westlake questioned whether or not the move would significantly change the political climate.

“I think to the extent that the Liberals are in trouble in the polls and electorally, I think there’s more than just Justin Trudeau that’s driving that,” Westlake said.

“I think things like cost of living, things like access to health care, things like housing accessibility and housing costs – all of those play a role in the lack of popularity of the Liberal Party and none of that changes when the Prime Minister changes.”

How will Justin Trudeau be remembered?

Farney said it would take some time from now to see the shape of Trudeau’s legacy.

“I think in five or 10 years, he will be seen as a significant prime minister, but probably not one who left his party in great shape, and one who had a bad sense of timing about when to exit,” he said.

Farney said it’s also possible that Trudeau would be remembered for presiding over the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting polarization alongside it.

Farney also said Trudeau did not have a great record of keeping women in cabinet despite his self-proclaimed feminism.

However, Farney said dental care and child care would have a big impact on people’s lives, though it’s hard to say how much people will credit Trudeau for that.

Westlake also said it would take some time to historically contextualize Trudeau, but said it was impressive of him to achieve a majority government and two minority governments from where the Party was in 2011.

He also said — depending on one’s view, Trudeau could be viewed positively or negatively for his expansion of the welfare state with the dental and child care initiatives, though he said the Liberals often made such moves under pressure from the NDP.

“The question will be, will (Trudeau) be remembered as a Mulroney — somebody who had essentially alienated many of the people around him by the time he was done in office? Or will he be remembered more as a Chrétien — somebody who was pretty capable but whose time had just come. That’s hard to tell right now,” Farney said.