Current public health measures not enough to stop COVID overload, modelling numbers say

Not only are COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU numbers across the province unsustainable right now, we can expect more surges in the coming months if nothing changes, chief medical health officer Dr. Saqib Shahab said Wednesday.

The province presented modelling numbers and a series of scenarios that show what it would take to lower the number of cases in the province. A series of five scenarios was shared, from worst case to best case.

Right now, even though cases are starting to go down, Shahab said Saskatchewan is nowhere near a best-case scenario.

“Just because we’re going down from 500, 600 cases a day to 200 to 300 a day, just because that looks good, it is still not a safe place,” he cautioned.

Shahab said if people can collectively work to reduce their number of contacts, get vaccinated and stay home if they’re sick, then the numbers could go down substantially. A few weeks after that, we’ll start to see hospitalizations and ICU admissions follow.

“If we can really see that coming down over November, December, that makes for a safe holiday season and low number of cases into the New Year,” he added.

Saskatchewan currently has the highest death rate and ICU rate per capita in the country.

Shahab said it’s up to the government to approve additional public health measures, and it doesn’t appear as though the public health orders in place now are enough on their own to affect case numbers.

“Just relying on vaccinations — first and second doses and booster doses — is not enough because that will still result in unsustainable increases in the next two months … That is not enough to protect the acute care system,” he explained.

He added the public has a responsibility as well, regardless of whether the public health orders change.

“If you’re not fully vaccinated, you’re failing in your duty of care,” Shahab said. “If you are not getting tested when you’re symptomatic, irrespective of the danger to your own health, you’re failing in your duty of care to others.”

The modelling showed that even if cases are going down now, it will be early 2022 before there may be any sense of normalcy. In the meantime, up to 20,000 surgeries could be cancelled, affecting health outcomes not only for COVID patients but others as well.

Vaccine status and hospital admissions

According to the modelling, there has been a decrease in hospital admissions in the last couple of weeks in most areas, with the exception of southeastern Saskatchewan.

“Pockets of undervaccinated individuals can still generate large, propagated outbreaks,” Shahab said, noting that’s especially true with Halloween and other holidays coming up.

Just over 48 per cent of those showing up in hospital since the beginning of October had their first positive COVID-19 test either when or after they were admitted to hospital. Shahab believed there were a couple of reasons for that, including social pressure or simply denial.

“For a variety of reasons, people present late in a significant proportion,” he said. “What that means is that their care is delayed so they can have a worse outcome.”

About 40 per cent of all hospitalizations are people under the age of 50, and the vast majority of them are not vaccinated, added Shahab.

Although there are breakthrough infections — especially in the 60-plus age category — due to waning immunity, medical conditions or unvaccinated status, modelling also shows those who are vaccinated against the virus are six times less likely to get COVID-19, 13 times less likely to end up in the hospital, and 28 times less likely to end up in an ICU.