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MONTREAL — The Quebec legislature resumes sitting Tuesday for a spring session likely to be dominated by the threat of a trade war with the United States and a renewed focus on secularism and identity.
On the eve of the national assembly’s return, Immigration Minister Jean-François Roberge announced the government will table a new bill on integration, focused on “adherence to the common culture” and to values including democracy, gender equality and secularism.
“For the first time in our history, we will define who we are and how we want to continue to evolve as a nation,” he said in a video posted Monday evening to social media.
He said the legislation will be in the same vein as the government’s controversial secularism law and its overhaul of the French language law.
Still, the threat of U.S. President Donald Trump’s promised 25 per cent tariff on goods imported from Canada will loom large as the session gets underway. Premier François Legault has for weeks been sounding the alarm about possible tariffs, warning they could cost Quebec 100,000 jobs.
Recently, Legault has drawn comparisons to the COVID-19 pandemic, urging Quebecers to stand together and promising to protect them “at all costs.” He has suggested various retaliatory measures, including restricting American access to public contracts, and has mused about calling on Quebec snowbirds not to travel to Florida.
Legault may be hoping the tariff threat will restore some of the shine that has worn off his Coalition Avenir Québec government since the pandemic, when he was the most popular premier in the country and enjoyed approval ratings as high as 77 per cent. At a caucus retreat last week, he presented himself as a safe bet to lead the province through the “Trump crisis.”
“This offers an opportunity for the CAQ to relaunch itself with the theme of the economy,” said Pascal Mailhot, a former political adviser to Legault. “When a threat like this occurs, it generally leads people to want to fall back on the government and avoid upheaval.”
Legault has also seized the chance to take aim at the sovereigntist Parti Québécois, which has been leading in the polls for more than a year. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to hold a referendum on independence by 2030, but Legault told supporters last week that sovereignty is the wrong priority in a moment of uncertainty.
“This is not the time to divide,” he said. “This is the time to work together and to work with the rest of Canada to win the battle against Mr. Trump.”
It’s unclear so far whether that message is resonating. A Léger poll last week showed the PQ with the support of 34 per cent of respondents, compared with 25 per cent for the governing party. But the poll also pegged support for independence around 31 per cent, down slightly from previous surveys that had put it around 35 per cent. Mailhot said the potential Canada-U.S. crisis could “destabilize” the PQ and undermine its popularity.
The Opposition Liberals have also joined the attack, with interim leader Marc Tanguay claiming Trump’s threats are a clear argument against sovereignty.
St-Pierre Plamondon has not backed off his support for independence and said last week he would not be swayed by the “turbulence” of the Trump administration. But he also acknowledged it will be a “challenge” to hold the government accountable on domestic issues with all eyes turned to the White House.
The need to support Quebec businesses in the face of tariffs could throw a wrench in the government’s plan to eliminate its record $11-billion deficit. Legault conceded last week he can no longer guarantee Quebec will achieve a balanced budget in the 2029-30 fiscal year, as planned.
“I think that it hurts them in terms of their branding,” said political analyst Rudy Husny. “They got elected by saying they’re the best managers of the economy … and now it’s like the largest deficit ever.”
Legault is clearly planning to make secularism another major theme this spring. The government has been investigating 17 Quebec schools following alleged violations of the province’s secularism rules. The probe was touched off by a government report, published in October, alleging a toxic climate created by a group of teachers, many of North African descent, at a Montreal primary school.
Since then, allegations have surfaced about Muslim religious practices at other public schools, and Legault has claimed teachers are introducing “Islamist religious concepts.” In December, Education Minister Bernard Drainville said the government would table new legislation to strengthen secularism in schools. Legault then went a step further, saying he would like to ban prayer in public places.
Meanwhile, the provincial Liberals are hoping a leadership race will re-energize their base and draw in new support, especially from francophone voters outside Montreal. The party suffered its worst defeat in decades during the last election and has been without a permanent leader since 2022.
Former federal cabinet minister Pablo Rodriguez is the presumed front-runner in the race. Charles Milliard, former head of the federation of Quebec chambers of commerce, also has support within the Liberal caucus. Party members will choose their new leader on June 14.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 28, 2025.
— With files from Thomas Laberge in Quebec City
Maura Forrest, The Canadian Press
