Climate change made some heat waves at least 10 times more likely: Environment Canada

A new rapid analysis says climate change made August heat waves over some of Canada’s most northern – and rapidly warming – regions at least 10 times more likely.

Environment and Climate Change Canada says the heat waves in Inuvik, N.W.T., as well as Kitikmeot and Kivalliq, Nvt., generated peak temperatures between 12 and 13 degrees above normal, and were made “far more likely” due to climate change.

The result is at the highest end of the three-level scale used by the department’s rapid attribution tool to describe the influence of climate change on a heat wave.

It’s the first time the label has been applied to any of the 28 heat wave results produced by the tool since it was publicly announced in June.

The rapid attribution tool, currently in its pilot phase, uses models to compare current and pre-industrial climates to analyze how human-caused carbon emissions, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, has influenced extreme weather.

The department released a batch of results on Wednesday indicating seven other August heat waves in Canada were made two to 10 times more likely due to climate change, while one in Manitoba was made one to two times more likely.

The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the planet, in a process known as Arctic amplification and driven in part by melting sea ice. When that bright and reflective sea ice melts, it exposes darker sea water or land that absorbs more solar radiation and leads to temperature increases.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 25, 2024.

Jordan Omstead, The Canadian Press