U of S researcher reacts to food price predictions

One of the lead researchers behind Canada’s Food Price Report for 2022 is providing some insight into the staggering seven per cent increase prediction in food prices.

Dr. Stuart Smyth, an associate professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and industry-funded research chair in Agri-Food Innovation at the University of Saskatchewan, said the Prairies will feel the effects of those rising costs compared to other areas in Canada.

With winter taking hold, most of the fruit and vegetable market is sourced from southern California.

“Those products move up the west coast and then through the southern interior of B.C. and with those corridors disrupted (by flooding), the products have to come through an alternate route,” Smyth said.

“It sort of compounds and is part of the reason that we’re predicting that food prices in the Prairies will be higher than other parts of Canada.”

In 2021, food prices rose by $600 and will rise by over $900 in 2022. This represents a nearly 10% increase. Wages aren't keeping pace and inflation increases the problem of higher food prices. Meat prices increased by 9.5% in 2021. https://t.co/pUHmzf7E3p pic.twitter.com/c2C9sSUgXW

— Stuart Smyth (@stuartsmyth66) December 9, 2021

The annual report released Thursday is published by Dalhousie University and the University of Guelph. It’s known as the most comprehensive set of data currently available about food prices.

Canada’s Food Price Report 2022 forecasts an overall food price increase of five to seven per cent for the coming year, the highest-predicted increase in food prices since the inception of the report 12 years ago.

Supply chain issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic strained food prices and availability. Weather events such as the heat dome and recent flooding in B.C. didn’t help matters either.

“Consumers have definitely seen in the last couple of months that meat prices have risen astronomically in some cases and other food prices increased as well,” Smyth said, adding the forecast isn’t surprising many people considering the market trends throughout the pandemic.

Smyth said a household with four people will spend an average of roughly $20 more per week on groceries because of the cost.

“Food prices have risen about 10 per cent over the last two years, and I’m not aware of anybody who’s got a 10 per cent raise over the past two years,” Smyth said.

With more income going towards the grocery bill, households will face tough budget decisions.

Smyth said Canada has long been known as a place with a policy of “cheap food.” The food price report suggests that narrative could be changing.

“Canada may be moving away from that as sort of a backbone of our economy,” Smyth said, looking ahead to 2022 and beyond. “We’re going to see food price increases into the near future.”

One tip to soften the blow at the till is to keep purchases conventional and avoid third-party labelling. Some products can cost anywhere from 30 to 90 per cent more using creative labels, according to Smyth.

“Examples of these labels would be non-GMO or organics, or gluten free for things that cannot have gluten in them,” Smyth said.

“The simple way to save money is to buy the conventional products that are as safe and nutritious as the third-part labelled products are.”

Another tip from Smyth is to buy more frozen vegetables as opposed to fresh vegetables, since they often cost less and offer the same nutritional value.

Prices are expected to increase in the coming weeks for things like fruits and vegetables, whereas meat, dairy and other products will gradually increase throughout the year.