Epidemiologist says Sask. residents have to be diligent to beat COVID-19

Cynthia Carr has watched with interest as Saskatchewan has posted a relatively low rate of positive COVID-19 tests.

The Winnipeg-based epidemiologist is originally from Moose Jaw, so she’s happy to see low numbers in her home province.

But Carr told Gormley on Tuesday a recent upturn in numbers — particularly in northern Saskatchewan — is a good reminder that testing has to continue to make sure the virus isn’t spreading.

“Sometimes you think (due to low positive numbers), ‘Is the test not sensitive or specific enough? Are we missing people because the test isn’t doing what it’s supposed to?’ ” Carr said. “What it sounds like, though, because you now have found a cluster in a population is that perhaps that test is doing a good job of identifying cases and that, for the most part, across Saskatchewan — having kind of a low-density population — you do have lower rates.

“But now we’re realizing this is why we keep testing. This is why we have to keep on top of monitoring and reporting back because even if it seems very low, you can have one person that’s a case and, boom, suddenly you have 12 in a very specific area.”

Carr said the recent outbreak in La Loche — which, as of Monday’s report from the provincial government, had 29 of the far north’s 42 active cases — could be valuable to researchers.

If there are enough tests done in the community and if there’s sufficient lab capacity to turn around the results quickly, La Loche could be a good case study in mass testing.

“If there were resources available, that community could be an ideal opportunity to learn about an across-the-age spectrum and maybe a north-south (comparison, to see) if there are any differences,” Carr said.

Given Saskatchewan’s progress to date in its battle against COVID-19, the provincial government has launched a plan to start reopening sectors of the economy. The first phase is to begin May 4, with Phase 2 to follow May 19.

As that happens, Carr said the public’s actions will be the key to the strategy’s success.

“We’ve learned from every outbreak — and this one as well — that old-fashioned personal hygiene is one of the main things that help us save lives, particularly in a situation where scientists are working hard at finding treatments and vaccines,” she said. “Those are a long way down the path …

“It’s up to all of us. Even with the strategies and a step-wise approach to opening, we need to be empowered, engaged and educated that now is not the time to stop.”

The provincial government has recommended hand-washing, physical distancing and other measures from the start of the pandemic, and those remain vital.

Even if with recent suggestions that friends and families can start to gather as restrictions are lifted, the government has stressed that get-togethers should include social distancing and should be limited to a maximum of 10 people.

Carr suggested those are necessary if Saskatchewan is to continue its progress against the virus.

“We know the right thing to do,” she said. “Do we need to specifically choose one family with whom to (visit) or do we just need to keep in mind the basic concepts? I would argue the latter and that those will probably be more helpful moving forward.”