SHA models for COVID-19 preparing for possibility of between 3,000 and 8,000 deaths

The Saskatchewan Health Authority released Wednesday three scenarios for its response to the impact of COVID-19 in the province.

The models suggested the SHA is preparing for the possibility of between 3,000 and 8,000 deaths.

But the authority stressed the models were not predictions, but rather showed the possibilities for which it is preparing. As Dr. Susan Shaw said during a conference call: “It’s a lot of what-ifs and that’s the challenge of a model.”

“They’re planning tools,” added Shaw, the SHA’s chief medical officer. “We’re not saying, ‘This is going to happen.’ We’re saying that we need to plan and work as a collective — as the public — to do everything we can to prevent the spread while the system prepares to be available.”

So far, three people in the province have died from complications related to the coronavirus. As of Wednesday, there were 271 cases in the province, with 103 recoveries.

The worst-case scenario listed in the models said the province could see 408,000 cases, with 8,370 deaths.

At peak times, 4,265 patients would require acute care in hospital at the same time. That would include 1,280 patients in intensive care with 90 to 95 per cent requiring ventilation.

The second scenario referred to 262,000 cases and 5,260 deaths.

The peak would see 1,265 patients in acute care at the same time and 380 in ICUs. Again, 90 to 95 per cent of those patients would need a ventilator.

The third model forecast the province would have 153,000 cases and 3,075 deaths.

At the peak, there would be 390 patients in acute care and 120 patients in ICUs. That group also would feature 90 to 95 per cent of people needing ventilators.

The SHA said there are 450 ventilators available in the province, with confirmed orders for 200 more. There are 100 expected in the next two to three weeks.

Shaw couldn’t say to which of those scenarios Saskatchewan currently is the closest.

“We hope that we’re actually in that lower prediction, that lower planning tool scenario, but it’s actually much too early to know,” she said.

“We have had the advance warning of watching the rest of the world and I think why we have to be planning so purposefully is that, while we hope that we’re tracking on the low-case scenario, there are signals around the world — and including in Canada — that we have to be paying a lot of attention.”

It’s also unclear when the pandemic in Saskatchewan will reach its peak, so the SHA has committed to preparing for the future.

“At this point in time, we just don’t have enough data that’s going to tell us exactly when we’re going to see that peak or how long (it will be),” CEO Scott Livingstone said. “But I will say … we believe the public health measures that are in place are making a large impact and if they continue to do so, that will flatten the curve.

“But it’s important for everybody to understand: The more you flatten the curve, the longer we stretch this out. That’s intentional. It’s so we avoid those peaks that we’ve seen across the world where health-care systems are completely overwhelmed by COVID.”

SHA officials said the measures taken by the government so far have had a marked impact on the potential spread of the virus.

Those include hand-washing, physical distancing and requiring people to stay home. The province also has closed schools and non-essential businesses and has recommended residents don’t travel.

“We’ll all be affected by how well we pull together,” said Dr. Julie Kryzanowski, the SHA’s senior medical health officer. “No health system in the world can bend the curve alone and we need the sustained support from the public to bend that curve.

“My takeaway is that the models underscore the importance of aggressive and sustained public health measures and population health approaches that can help us flatten the curve.”

The SHA’s plan to increase testing has resulted in the creation of 38 testing sites around the province and the tripling of staff for contact tracing. Five assessment sites have been opened, with 21 more to open in the coming weeks.

Expecting a need for increased acute care, the SHA plans up to 57 per cent more capacity over the next several weeks as needed.

The SHA plans to create dedicated spots within facilities to keep COVID-19 patients together and also plans to designate certain hospitals as COVID-19 hospitals only. Twenty hospitals in the province will get that designation if required.

There also are field hospitals planned for Saskatoon and Regina, with more locations around the province as required.

In Saskatoon, that facility would be at Merlis Belsher Place. The Regina field hospital would be at Evraz Place.

In a media release, Livingstone said the SHA wanted the public to know that plans were in place for times when the pandemic worsens in the province. But he stressed the changes proposed in the plan only will be implemented if there’s a surge.

The goal is to make sure the province doesn’t reach that point.

“We are luckily right now at the beginning and (the curve) is staying flat for now and we remain cautiously optimistic that this is what we hope to see continue,” Shaw said. “However, we have a responsibility to be planning for what-ifs.

“While it’s too early to know exactly what’s going to happen next, we do know based on what the Public Health Agency of Canada, what the premier and what the prime minister have said is that we should anticipate for weeks to months — and we’re not able to be more accurate within Saskatchewan beyond that at this time.”