Russia greatest short-term threat to North America: Norad deputy commander

OTTAWA — A senior Canadian general added his voice to a growing chorus of military voices calling for modernizing North American defensive systems as he described Russia as the “greatest short-term threat” to the continent.

Lt.-Gen. Christopher Coates, deputy commander of the North American Aerospace Defence Command, the Canadian-American defensive system better known as Norad, said Wednesday a military attack by Russia was not likely in the immediate future.

But he said Russia and other potential adversaries have been racing to develop a variety of non-nuclear weapons and find gaps in North America’s ability to defend against cyber, information and economic attacks.

“Russia today represents the greatest short-term threat to North America,” he said at a defence conference in Ottawa.

The primary concern is that without the ability to detect, defend against and respond to new attacks, Coates said, Russia will be able to effectively hold Canada and the U.S. hostage and limit their ability to act in the world.

“I don’t think … we’re in danger of a Russian conventional attack on North America in the near period,” Coates said during a panel discussion organized by the Conference of Defence Associations Institute.

“But what I think we need to be worried about at the strategic level is that shifting balance of power and the ability of Canadian diplomats to do the jobs they need to do internationally.”

Coates is the latest military officer to warn about the threat posed by Russia, which has been steadily building up its non-nuclear arsenal that can strike North America while flexing its muscles when it comes to misinformation and cyberwarfare.

Much of that concern has revolved around the age of the Norad system, which was originally built in the 1950s to detect Soviet nuclear missiles. The system was last upgraded in the 1980s, and officials have warned it cannot detect new, long-range Russian weapons.

The Liberal government’s 2017 defence policy included plans to upgrade or modernize Norad to defend against the threats of today and tomorrow, but talks with the U.S. have been minimal and no money has been set aside for what is expected to be a multibillion-dollar project.

Coates suggested Canada and the U.S. “kept our eye off the ball for a while” by not taking the threat posed by Russia seriously. The implication is that North America is now playing catch up.

While it will ultimately be up to the government to decide what Norad looks like in the future — and how much it will cost to get there — Coates said an update is required — and that will cost money and effort.

“I think all Canadians should recognize the importance that that partnership brings to our defence and security and that we need to put a value on it,” he said.

“Of course, it’s not a blank cheque. … But there’s something that’s required. There’s some level of modernization that I think would be necessary to ensure Norad does remain relevant, that we cause Russia and others, perhaps, to view North America as not a soft target.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 4, 2020.

Lee Berthiaume, The Canadian Press