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It’s been more than two weeks since the federal election campaign began, and none of the main party leaders have stopped in Saskatchewan yet.
But that’s going to change on Wednesday, as Liberal Leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are scheduled to hold events in Saskatoon after making campaign stops in B.C. on Tuesday.
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Carney’s event will begin around 5:30 p.m., while Singh’s begins at 7 p.m. The locations have not been announced yet.
According to a March 31 survey by Liaison Strategies, which polled 603 decided and leaning voters in Saskatoon, the Conservative Party is ahead at 43 per cent, while the Liberal Party is not far behind at 39 per cent.
The NDP also hold double digits at 10 per cent according to David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.
“Saskatoon emerged as a sub-region where the Liberals are outperforming expectations, largely at the NDP’s expense,” Valentin said.
“This is especially notable given recent redistribution, which placed three ridings entirely within the city limits – making it a compelling reason to conduct a dedicated poll of the area.”
It’s been some time since either the federal Liberals or the NDP have won a seat in Saskatchewan. Two NDP seats and one Liberal seat were lost to the Conservatives in 2019.
According to Daniel Westlake, assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, all three of the major political leaders will likely make quick stops in Saskatchewan during the campaign to show they “care” about the province and about the country as a whole.
For the NDP and the Liberals, one of the only ridings where they could potentially make gains is Saskatoon West.
“It’s a riding that the NDP won in 2015, but that was an election in which the Conservatives did quite poorly,” said Westlake.
“I don’t think it’s a riding that the NDP wins in an election like this, where the Conservatives are doing reasonably well,” he added.
Westlake said voters shouldn’t read too much into the fact that none of the main party leaders have stopped in Saskatchewan so far, as they generally want to spend their time in areas with lots of competitive seats, and Saskatchewan just doesn’t have a lot of them.
“We’ve got one in Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River that the Liberals, I think, have a good shot at winning. Beyond that, there’s an outside shot. Maybe if the Liberals are doing really well in the election they pick up a couple of seats in Saskatoon and Regina,” he explained.
That’s echoed in part by the polling results, which indicate that Saskatoon West could be competitive. However, if Liberal support declines nationally, then any Saskatoon riding could be out of reach.
Voters go to the polls on April 28.
