Polls suggest a close race as federal election approaches

OTTAWA — Multiple polls now suggest the next federal election will be a tight race, and at least one major pollster has the Liberals leading the Conservatives for the first time in nearly four years.

A survey from Ipsos released this week suggests that if an election were held today, 38 per cent of Canadians would support the Liberals and 36 per cent would back the Conservatives.

That’s a major shift from just six weeks ago, when the Conservatives held a 26-point lead in Ipsos polls.

Leger’s latest survey suggests the Conservatives have 38 per cent support, putting them three points ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

Leger also asked respondents how they would vote if Mark Carney, the front-runner in the race to replace Trudeau, were Liberal leader. In that scenario, Liberal support jumped to 40 per cent while Conservative support remained at 38 per cent.

Neither poll can be assigned a margin of error because online surveys are not considered truly random samples.

Philippe Fournier, polling analyst with 338Canada, said it’s “a dramatic turnaround in the numbers” and not something he would have expected to see just two months ago.

January was a tumultuous month in Canadian politics.

Trudeau announced on Jan. 6 he would be stepping down as Liberal leader and prime minister, kicking off a Liberal leadership race.

After Donald Trump took over the White House on Jan. 20, he immediately threatened to impose sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods and mused about annexing Canada. Trump has become a major source of concern for Canadians, one that promises to dominate the next election.

“If the Conservatives lose 10 points because Justin Trudeau is gone, that is massive,” Fournier said.

He added that the change could be a “sugar high” driven by Trudeau’s departure and Carney’s status as a relatively unknown entity.

“There was a chunk of support for Mr. Poilievre, and some of that was because he was not Justin Trudeau. And now we see good numbers for Mr. Carney, and some of that is because he’s not Mr. Poilievre,” Fournier said.

The trends in major polls in recent weeks also suggest the Liberals are pulling support from all major parties, not just the Conservatives.

Ipsos suggested support for the NDP is now at just 12 per cent, down four points from January.

Leger had the NDP at just nine per cent against Carney’s Liberals.

Jagmeet Singh insisted earlier this week that he is still the best person to lead New Democrats into the next election despite those numbers.

In Quebec, 24 per cent of people polled by Leger said they would vote for the Bloc Québécois, down from 37 per cent in late January.

In a statement issued Wednesday, Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet said his party is the only one that will speak for Quebec.

“True to form, none of the federal parties show the slightest concern regarding the crucial issues for Quebec,” Blanchet said in French.

The next fixed election date is in October but it appears increasingly likely that a vote will come within the next few months.

Parliament is prorogued until March 24.

If MPs return to the House of Commons at that time, the Liberals will have only a matter of days to deliver a throne speech and schedule opposition days and spending votes — giving opposition parties multiple opportunities to vote non-confidence in the minority government and trigger an election.

On Monday after the French-language Liberal debate, Carney said he could call an election before then.

“There are some circumstances — and I’ll let you use your imagination — where it may make sense to recall Parliament,” he told reporters.

“We’ll do the best thing for Canada. It is more likely that the best thing for Canada is that the government has a strong and clear mandate sooner to take the necessary steps to build this country.”

The Conservatives sent emails to supporters this week noting that they’re rolling out ads on TV, radio and social media.

“Our team is already in campaign mode,” said the Wednesday email, adding that Conservative candidates have been nominated in more than 240 ridings.

Conservative MP Michael Barrett brushed off concerns about the poll numbers at a press conference on Wednesday.

“When I’m talking to my constituents, I’m hearing from Canadians across the country, they want us to eliminate the Liberals’ carbon tax on everything,” he said.

— With files from Kyle Duggan

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 26, 2025.

Sarah Ritchie, The Canadian Press