Poll shows Freeland a close second on first ballot in Liberal leadership race

MONTREAL — A new poll suggests that while former central banker Mark Carney is still the odds-on favourite to win the Liberal leadership, he isn’t likely to win on the first ballot.

A Mainstreet Research survey shows Carney with a solid lead among registered Liberals — and former finance minister Chrystia Freeland coming in second.

The poll suggests 43 per cent of Liberal supporters would vote for Carney on the first ballot, while 31 per cent would choose Freeland.

Former House leader Karina Gould has the support of 16 per cent of Liberals, while three per cent prefer Montreal businessman Frank Baylis. Seven per cent remain undecided.

The Liberal leadership race uses a ranked ballot and the polling heavily favours Carney on the second ballot — where he nets roughly half of Liberal votes.

Mainstreet pollster Quito Maggi says that while “right now, it doesn’t look like Carney would win on the first ballot,” he expects Carney to win in the end.

He also says the French and English leadership debates likely will have some effect on the candidates’ support.

He notes that Google search analytics showed an uptick for Gould after Monday’s French debate, while Carney’s performance in French received some bad reviews.

The survey was conducted Feb. 7 to 23 and heard from more than 2,400 adult Liberal party members, after reaching out to them by text and asking them to fill out an online survey.

The polling industry’s professional body, the Canadian Research Insights Council, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population.

The candidates will square off Tuesday evening for a second and final time before party rank-and-file can cast ballots through advance voting, which starts Wednesday.

The winner will be announced at an event in Ottawa on March 9.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 25, 2025.

Kyle Duggan, The Canadian Press