Sask. Votes 2024: Battleground ridings in Regina

Each of the 61 constituencies in Saskatchewan will send an MLA to the legislature after October 28, but some of the candidates will have a harder fight than others.

In the Regina area, there are a number of battleground constituencies and several that will be interesting to poll watchers on election night.

Leader-Post political columnist Murray Mandryk said there are several ridings in the Regina area he’ll be watching closely, including some which have been well-established territory for the NDP in the past. He spoke particularly about Regina Rochdale and Regina Northeast, which he said are becoming more like Regina-Wascana Plains – a solid suburban seat for Scott Moe’s Sask. Party.

“At this particular point, I think the Sask. Party has a very good chance of hanging on (in those ridings), but if the NDP are serious about making gains – and I’m talking about serious gains as opposed to a few seats here, there and everywhere where they just have a stronger opposition – they’re going to need to take ridings like that,” said Mandryk.

In 2022, the Saskatchewan Boundary Commission made its final recommendations on changing most constituencies’ boundaries. Some changes were small, but others saw big moves.

Regina University changed quite a bit. The Sask. Party’s Gene Makowsky is is running in that riding instead of Regina Gardiner Park, which no longer exists. The NDP’s Aleana Young had been the Regina University MLA, but she’s running in the new Regina South Albert riding.

Mandryk said Regina University will be fascinating to watch, because Makowsky is personally popular despite some struggles he’s had as minister of social services.

“I think the Sask. Party is betting that his personal popularity is enough to carry him through,” said Mandryk.

But, Mandryk added, the NDP has a good candidate in Sally Housser, who knows how to campaign, and he noted that Regina University is likely home to a younger voter base, which is not necessarily the Sask. Party’s demographic.

Mandryk said he’s particularly interested in the ridings which have changed their makeup, like those shifting between urban and rural. He specifically noted the new White City-Qu’Appelle riding, which put White City and Emerald Park into the centre of an otherwise rural riding.

“We’ll see how issues like the carbon tax and things like that affect people that actually drive to work every day, and that’s a big deal,” said Mandryk.

For a different reason, Mandryk said he’ll be interested to see what happens in the Weyburn and Estevan ridings where third-party candidates like the Sask. United Party and Buffalo Party may draw right-wing voters, though he noted that it probably won’t translate into any seats.

“It would be absolutely silly to think they’re going to do well enough to knock off the established Sask. Party candidate, because the one sentiment consistent in rural Saskatchewan is that we might not like what the government is doing, but we surely don’t want an NDP government,” explained Mandryk.

There have only been a few polls testing the waters in Saskatchewan ahead of the provincial election, but those have shown the NDP making gains. Daniel Westlake, an assistant political science professor at the University of Saskatchewan, said that’s not necessarily a sign of good performance by the NDP.

“The reality is, the last couple of elections the NDP did very poorly, and so it’s hard to see them doing worse,” said Westlake.

“It’s also a Sask. Party now that’s been in government for 17 years. Any government, given enough time, will do things that will make people unhappy and will eventually have to be in government at a time when people are unhappy with the economic situation or unhappy with things like affordability, so it’s not surprising to me to see the NDP making gains.”

Westlake agreed that the NDP will have to make gains outside of Regina and Saskatoon in order to improve.

“If the Sask. Party comes out of this election holding most of the suburban ridings, that’s really bad news for the NDP,” he explained.

Looking elsewhere, Westlake said he’ll be keeping an eye on Moose Jaw and Prince Albert constituencies. He said if the NDP can gain any of those seats, it would be a positive sign for the party in this election and could also signal growth potential for the NDP into the future.

Several of the riding in the province which saw only a few hundred votes between the winner and losers in the last election are in Regina and Saskatoon. Those include: Saskatoon University-Sutherland, Saskatoon Eastview, Saskatoon Meewasin, Saskatoon Churchill Wildwood, Saskatoon Westview, Saskatoon Riversdale, Regina University, Regina Pasqua, Regina Northeast and Regina Coronation Park.

The Prince Albert Northcote, Moose Jaw Wakamow, and Saskatchewan Rivers seats were also decided by a few hundred votes during the 2020 campaign.