NDP win significant but not transformative, public policy expert says

The byelection victory for the Saskatchewan NDP in Saskatoon Meewasin on Monday night is good news for the NDP, but isn’t “all that transformative” for the opposition party.

That’s according to Ken Coates, a professor of public policy at the University of Saskatchewan. He said the result of the byelection was a really good one for the NDP and offered a chance for the new leader, Carla Beck, to show that she can bring her party forward.

“It means they’ve got more hope than they had a week ago,” Coates said.

The victory, however, is not to be overestimated, Coates noted.

“You don’t want to think too much of it because, in fact, it was a previous NDP seat for a couple of terms and the Saskatchewan Party did reasonably well. But it’s a better sign than perhaps some people expected to happen this time around,” Coates explained.

Coates said the election really just saw one NDP MLA resign from the legislature and another one elected to take his place.

The professor said Nathaniel Teed, the newly elected MLA, has been a good spokesperson and a good voice for the party so far.

“It’s one more voice, but they had a very good spokesperson and a very good voice there before,” Coates said, referring to previous party leader Ryan Meili, who resigned his position as party leader in May.

Coates said the potential for major change isn’t great based on this byelection alone, but he said the opposite would be true if the Saskatchewan Party had won. He said a loss in the Saskatoon riding would have “really challenged the trajectory of the NDP and really put them in a tizzy, I suspect.”

The NDP won the race by a wide margin, which Coates said will help build confidence even further.

“The size of the victory is important,” he said. “It certainly gives the NDP more confidence going into the next election, but it isn’t all that transformative.”

Teed won the race with 56.7 per cent of the vote, far ahead of the Saskatchewan Party’s Kim Groff, who managed 37 per cent.

With byelections come voters who are often partisan and long-time supporters of a specific political group, Coates explained. Byelections don’t typically draw the casual voters to the polls like a general election does.

He distinguished the two types of elections further by explaining that province-wide elections tend to be driven by provincial issues and party leaders, while byelections are more focused on local issues.

In about a month, the Saskatchewan NDP will hold its annual convention for 2022. A notable absence will be federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who’s not invited. Coates said he sees “a real gap” between the federal and provincial New Democratic parties.

“I think the federal NDP is not necessarily a benefit to the Saskatchewan (NDP) at all,” Coates said.

Coates said Singh coming here would draw attention to issues that are divisive in Saskatchewan, like the federal leader’s stances on energy and pipelines, which would be unpopular in the western provinces.

That makes for a “real challenge” for the Saskatchewan NDP’s new leader to show that she has her own policies and ideas, along with the ability to inspire the province, Coates said.

“Beck has a formidable challenge to present herself as a province-wide leader, and I don’t blame her for not wanting to share the stage with anybody at this juncture other than her own party members,” Coates said.

He said the Saskatchewan NDP will have to come up with “a much bigger plan for a much bigger problem,” and seek to provide guidance for the province as a whole as party members set their sights on the 2024 provincial election.