It’ll be weeks before Sask. sees benefit of vaccination uptake, says U of S epidemiologist

Provincial health measures designed to curb the spread of COVID-19 and to promote vaccination need to go further, according to a University of Saskatchewan epidemiologist.

Dr. Nazeem Muhajarine says while over the last week and a half there has been an average of about 4,000 first and second doses of vaccines administered per day, it’s going to be weeks before that’s reflected in case counts — especially those who are getting their first shots.

“People who are getting their first vaccine this past week, they will be fully immunized in roughly five to six weeks. It still takes that much time for somebody to be fully immunized once they get their first shot,” Muhajarine said.

“They have to wait three to four weeks to get their second shot and then you add another two weeks or so until vaccine-induced immunity level kind of builds up to that level that we want to see.”

Had the measures been implemented in August, said Muhajarine, Saskatchewan would likely be seeing vaccination rates in the range of 83 per cent, rather than just reaching 80 per cent of those eligible.

Saskatchewan currently has the lowest vaccination rate in Canada.

Speaking with Gormley on Monday, Premier Scott Moe said prior to the vaccine passport program, the province was seeing about half a per cent increase in vaccine uptake per week.

“We’re up to about a per cent and a half per week now, so it’s significant uptake … Over 80 per cent of the people in our ICU are unvaccinated and they’re coming from 30 per cent of the population,” he added.

But Muhajarine believes that the crest of the current wave is still likely weeks away and that public health orders don’t go as far as they should. That includes the vaccine passport program.

“We don’t have other measures that other jurisdictions have,” he explained. “For example, (we don’t have) limits on public gatherings in indoor places … We don’t have complete multiple public health measures in place that have been shown to be most effective, along with getting enough people vaccinated.

“(Vaccine passports) aren’t extended to schools. It is not extended, for example, to the Saskatchewan Health Authority workers and premises. Those are two to mention that are very important. If that policy were extended to schools and SHA, we could see even more of a vaccine uptick happening.”

He’s hoping to see additional measures announced soon.

“At this stage of the pandemic, into the 19th month now, we should be doing a whole lot better than what we are doing right now,” Muhajarine said.