U of R professor isn’t optimistic about possible Biden trade policies

As the United States shifts to a different president, one University of Regina economics professor is trying to gaze into the future and what impacts the new administration will have.

On Wednesday, Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States, ending the presidency of Donald Trump.

But Dr. Jason Childs doesn’t have a lot of optimism that the Biden administration is good news for Saskatchewan exports.

“You’re dealing with a group of people around Biden particularly who are skeptics of trade and not keen on the projects Saskatchewan produces and Western Canada produces,” Childs said. “They’re skeptical of the oilsands, they’re skeptical of the way we do natural resource extraction and they tend to be a little more inward focused so I don’t see a huge relief from a lot of the Trump policies that negatively affected us.

“They’re looking at arguing a much more nuanced approach to trade than say what would have been done under the (George) Bush era. They’re acknowledging that there are people who are harmed by opening up trade with other countries.”

While Childs said there’s no way to 100 per cent know what the Biden administration will do, it appears many people involved in the campaign support government licensing and government regulation when it comes to business.

Childs also doesn’t see the Buy American policies going away.

“It will probably get rebranded and tweaked but I can see it continuing under this administration for sure and it’s going to make it harder for us to engage in some of the policies that are designed to stimulate the American economy,” Childs said.

The Biden administration also appears to already be making decisions affecting Canadian industries, with reports it was going to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline expansion project.

Childs said he’s disappointed by the decision but isn’t surprised.

“It has been kicked around in his campaign since early on. It’s consistent with a lot of the green wing of the Democratic Party and it’s an indication of who’s going to be calling the policy shots. It’s important not to read too much into it but it’s not a good sign for Western Canada,” Childs said.

He said the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline isn’t a huge blow to Saskatchewan but some other provinces and states will feel the brunt of the cancellation. Alberta, for example, has already spent millions on the project.

“That leaves them with a loss. They sunk money into a hole and the hole, if you’ll forgive an oil analogy, turned out to be dry,” Childs said.

While Childs can’t be certain, he doesn’t expect Canada and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to retaliate against Biden like it did against tariffs imposed by Trump.

“I don’t think so but it’s got to be in the mix,” Childs said. “We talked about it with Trump. Trump wasn’t that politically popular with the Liberal base the way Biden might be, so getting into a tit-for-tat exchange with Biden is going to have different political costs than getting into a tit for tat with Trump.

“Trump used trade as a game to be won and that made trade policy with the U.S. very (volatile). I think we’re going to get some consistency out of the Biden camp but they’re more likely to want to use trade as a lever to pursue other policy objectives. Do we really want our dependence on trade with the U.S. to drive policy outside trade in Canada? Because I think that’s on the table.”

But for now, Childs said all we can do is speculate on what the Biden presidency will mean for us.

“We are reading tea leaves and I hope I’m wrong. I don’t think I am but I really hope I’m wrong this time. That first 100 days, they all like to set the tone and some of the announcements that he’s made already — the $15 minimum wage, the $1.9-trillion stimulus package — that sets an interesting tone,” Childs said.

Moe marks Biden’s inauguration

Premier Scott Moe issued a statement following Biden’s inauguration in which he hoped for “the success and prosperity of the United States” under Biden.

“Saskatchewan will continue to advocate for our interests with the new administration, including protecting the important trade and export supply chain between our nations and strengthening North America’s energy security,” Moe wrote.

“To this end, it is incredibly troubling that TC Energy has suspended work on Keystone XL in light of the pipeline’s looming cancellation by the Biden administration. Now is the time for our nations to strengthen our trading relationship, not erect further barriers to collaborative and sustainable development.”

The Calgary company made the announcement Wednesday, expecting Biden to revoke approval of the project.